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Forecasting Journal: June 27, 2009

By Justin Long ⋅ June 28, 2009 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Short Term Forecasts to 2015

2013. Annual global IP traffic will reach 667 exabytes (667 billion gigabytes) (CISCO, via KurzweilAI.net)

Ambient Corp’s high-tech neckband lets you speak without really speaking. It reads your vocal cords for words your “thinking” about speaking. (probably similar to the way Segway reads miniscule adjustments in your body stance to indicate direction). It understands 150 words.

Global biodiesel Will Triple from 2010 to 2020: fuels based on waste greases will reach market in 2010; Latin America-based Jatropha plants will be marketed as fuel by 2014; algae-based biodiesel will be marketed by 2012. I didn’t see corn or other “human foods” anywhere in this report.

Medium Term Forecasts to 2025

Inmamusys, an artificial intelligence program, can compose and play new, original music in real time (Eurekalert.org)

Detailed Roadmap of the 21st Century offers a number of predictions for 2025:

population 7.9 billion [UN04]
China has 40M single men, and a rapidly ageing society with no social safety net [MoD07]
China might develop significant global power projection capability [MoD07]
GDP of Brazil at $2Tn, China at $12Tn, India at $4Tn, Russia at $3Tn, Mexico at $2Tn, US at $20Tn, Japan at $7Tn (all in 2005 US$) [G-S05]
combined GDP of BRICs at $20Tn, G7 at $39Tn, N-11 at $10Tn (all in 2005 US$) [G-S05]
GDP-per-capita in BRICs and N-11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam) around or above $3000 (in 2005 US$) [G-S05]
full MNT (molecular manufacturing assemblers) [Kurzweil06]
Tactical Autonomous Combatant (TAC) units [Alpha03]
BRIC’s (Brazil, Russia, India , China) GDP is 50% of G6 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy) [G-S03]
nano-machines for theranostics (therapy and diagnosis) are practically used inside the body [ICTAF05]
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan revealed [WP06]
Almost all fish (for food) comes from massive ocean ranches (over 100 ranches, each larger than a cubic mile in area) [Wang06]
Billion CPU personal nanocomputers [Wang06]
Over half electronic products produced with MNT [Wang06]
Nano-RFID tags with built-in memory simplify constant detailed tracking and monitoring of everything [Wang06]
MNT-enabled identity theft [Wang06]
Selective Body Sculpting is safe and effective [Wang06]
MNT counterfeiting eliminates physical currency [Wang06]
Nano-enabled space vehicles, 10-1000 times better performance [Wang06]
Nanofactories create space vehicles with ion drives with 750 kWe/kg specific power, speed 0.5 AU per day and 9.8 m/s2 acceleration. Earth to Mars in 1 to 3 days, Earth to Saturn in 20 days [Wang06]
Mining on asteroids and the moon [Wang06]
10,000 people living on lunar bases [Wang06]
High resolution direct visual feeds made in realtime and fed to retina, able to fool viewer for indefinite periods [Wang06]
MNT repair of physical trauma, almost no deaths once injured and then get MNT treatment (EMT or hospital) [Wang06]
Space elevator [Wang06]
Massive solar energy deployments, over one third of the new energy generators [Wang06]
Gene therapy to enhance human intelligence [Wang06]
Life expectancy doubles [Wang06]
Efficient asset allocation and management science boosts productivity growth by 3% per year [Wang06]
Full immersion virtual reality by neural interfacing. [Clarke99]

Long Term Forecasts to 2050

Very Long Term Forecasts: Beyond 2050

Britain’s 2080 forecast is hot and wet: a new Met Office research report projects summer temperatures in excess of 40 C, wildfires, storm surges, and crop failures.

Resources

Futures Research Methodology version 3.0, edited by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, bills itself as the largest and most comprehensive collection of methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource: a CD-ROM with 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. $49.50.

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