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Mission Researchers Respond to the Muslim Demographic Video

By Justin Long ⋅ May 13, 2009 ⋅ Email This Post Email This Post ⋅ Print This Post Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

There is a video that is getting a lot of views (over 4.8 million) on Youtube, focusing on Muslim demographics in Europe. It’s shown up on a lot of Christian mission blogs, and has been twittered quite a bit. Unfortunately the statistics used on the video are unsourced, so I don’t know their origin. However, they are dramatically different from anything that missionary researchers project. In this posting, well known missions researchers have been invited to talk about the video and highlight a few things they feel deserve response.

Jason Mandryk (editor, Operation World):

One element that we cannot possibly accurately estimate (at least I cannot see a mechanism for accurate estimation) is the secularizing effect of European society on immigrants with a religious affiliation and on the children of religion parents. Obviously the social dynamics of each specific religion itself will be a factor (and Christianity is the most susceptible to secularization, for several reasons). But as I maintained elsewhere, the big gamble of 21st Century Western civilization is that a pluralist society (or secular, as it were) has a conversion effect on religious populations. If you take solely the last 10 years in almost any Central or Western European country it is evident that conversion from Christianity, however nominal, to non-religious is the largest conversion stream.

Projecting 2000-2050 is as large a period of time as 1950-2000 and we know the radical changes that occurred in Europe during the last 50 years. Can we have ANY idea about how effective secular materialism will be in converting Muslims, Hindus, non-Western Christians, etc to non-religion? I don’t know, but on an anecdotal basis, the large majority of the Muslims I know in the UK – which would consist of about 40 people, predominantly male and Pakistani and under 35 years old – demonstrate high degrees of nominalism and almost all of the same traits which have seen the exodus of a younger generation from Christianity to non-faith in the last 10-20 years. Many younger Muslims in the UK (and in other Western nations) show the same social values that nominal Christians do – and as great a personal commitment to secular materialism as to their religion – and as such, make for perfectly acceptable and indeed welcomed citizens of a pluralist society.

Perhaps we are underestimating both the appeal of European secular materialism as a social construct as well as underestimating our human nature which draws us away from devotion to our gods and toward devotion to ourselves?

In closing, I would add that perhaps the influx of Muslims into Europe is what Europe needs. The choices European civilization has made in the last 50 years has necessitated large-scale immigration. The increasingly strident anti-Christian and anti-religious bias of the EU has made our monotheistic cousins the Muslims unexpected allies on many moral, ethical and social issues. Living in a society with a large Muslim minority or even a tolerant Muslim majority, Christians may find themselves more content and more free than in an aggressively secular, anti-religious society.

Jim Haney (International Mission Board):

The stat that perks my interest the most is that of 15% non-indigenous Christians.  An influx of immigrants from the South, who tend to be mono-theistic is not necessarily bad considering that indigenous Europeans are increasingly secular and post-modern.  With the Iranian, Kabyle, and who knows what others coming out of the increasingly Christian Global South, Europe may move from a historic Christian region to one with “newly indigenous” settlements and footholds of Muslim Background Believers (MBBs) from the Global South who do not integrate with secular, post-modern indigenous Europeans (and perhaps they shouldn’t if they want to retain their belief in God) and exercise their faith as practicing Christians.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to hear an MBB mother from Iran in Amsterdam reminding her children as they leave for school—“Now stay away from those who say they are Christians.  Remember we are practicing followers of Isa.”  And in our regional reviews with our personnel, our regional leadership says that they are running into such pockets in many places with baptisms in some interesting venues to top it off.

I know my scenario here is unlikely considering the overwhelming numbers of Muslims coming into Europe, but stranger things have happened.  Zwemer said, “We tend to over-estimate trends and under-estimate God.”

Peter Crossing (World Christian Database)

YouTube’s figures seem to come from blog sites and whispers, but not apparently from the German Government as it purports; many figures come from Bryan J. Williamson in “Global Jihad: Lifting the Veil on Islam” available for purchase at the Virgin Mary’s Bayside Prophecies Store. The grain of truth that the Muslim population percentage is increasing in Europe is correct, but WCD projections show Europe overall at 7% by 2050. It may partly be the difference between a straight mathematical extrapolation, and a projection which includes factors that change current growth. (Large growth rates are only sustainable for small populations and inevitably level out as the percentage increases. ie. it’s easy for a population to increase from 20 to 40, but much harder from 20m to 40m).

The base data too, from which the extrapolation is calculated, is very different to WCD:
e.g. Britain Muslims (WCD)
1970:    635,000 1.14%
2010: 1,680,000 2.73%

(as against YouTube’s something like 80,000 in 1970 to 2.5m in 2009–big difference in the extrapolation!)
WCD has 2050: 2,850,000 4.15%

And, by the way, it just seems really unlikely that 1m Muslims in the Netherlands are having the same number of children as 15m non-Muslims. UN says 180,000 births per year, which would mean 90,000 Muslim births. There are 500,000 Muslim females, but say 250,000 at a stretch of child-bearing age–that’s almost every second female giving birth, every year.

It helps make the case for careful demographic research to counter hyperbole. We’re called to live by the truth, even if it gets in the way of a story :)

Patrick Johnstone

From the forthcoming book, The Future of the Worldwide Church, (c) 2009, republished by permission.

This is the text for my slide series which was abbreviated above:

The solemn future for Europe has more to do with a sea change in societal attitudes than in the future size and composition of its population. The graph illustrates this.

These figures are derived from carefully developed databases and projections  involving Operation World, World Christian Database, Joshua Project List, etc.

These figures pre-suppose present trends to continue, but if there were massive flights of refugees from famine or war in the Middle East (both fairly likely), this number could massively increase.

The Graph. I have divided the population of Europe first by status as an indigenous culture, or an originally migrant culture. Second by religion into 6 religious streams. The staggered columns represent the immigrant cultures.

Christians. First I show the Christians in both the indigenous and immigrant populations. The indigenous population of Christians will probably decrease (without a significant revival) and will almost halve in number, but Christian immigrants will have a three-fold increase to become 15% of the total population of Christians.

Muslims

1. Indigenous Muslims are relatively few and comprise:

A. Balkan Muslim groups – Bosnians, Slavs, Turks, Rom etc

B. Indigenous wives who marry Muslims and convert to Islam

C. Converts: Many Afro-Caribbeans and indigenous in Britain are converted to Islam in British jails. There are a number of high profile converts to Islam, but their number is  relatively small, and this is unlikely to increase significantly.

2. Indigenous Muslims are likely to decline in numbers in parallel to the overall indigenous population decline.

3. Immigrant Muslims vary very much in origin, religious attitudes and countries for preferred settlement.

A. North African Arabs – especially prominent in France (where they may comprise most of the 28% of the population that could be Muslim in 2050). Also in Netherlands and in most West European countries. Some are more radicalized Islamist in  orientation, but others very nominal. Many Kabyle and increasing numbers of Arabs are becoming Christian believers.

B. Middle Eastern Arabs – Italy, Greece, Britain etc. Less Islamist, many refugees (both Christians and Muslims fleeing extremism in their own homelands). Migration of Middle Eastern Christians to the West is significant

C. Turks – Especially Germany, Switzerland and Austria. Many are secular, some more religious, but relatively little Islamism. There are Turkish BMBs in Germany, UK and Netherlands

D. South Asians. Mainly UK, and rapidly growing community with close links with N Pakistan. Increasingly radicalised by Islamist leadership and growing through marriage immigration, refugees and large family sizes. Many South Asian Muslims are nominal and becoming more secular.

E. Iranians – all over Europe, most refugees from extremism and very hostile to it. Many are very open to Christianity. Many churches springing up across continent.

4. Muslims are likely to increase from 5% in 2000 to over 16% in 2050. This is an average for all of Europe, so some countries such as France, Netherlands, etc. it is likely to be higher.

5. Once Muslims reach 10-20% of a nation’s population increased leverage is used to force legislation favourable to Muslims and detrimental to Christians. That leverage can be violent too – to create fear and encourage appeasement.

The graph also shows the non-religious and the other smaller faith streams. These are mainly Hindu (South Asians in Britain especially and Sri Lankan Tamils refugees from the conflict in that island state) and Buddhist (mainly Chinese all over Europe)

The non-religious adults and young people will increase rapidly in numbers through abandonment of Christianity, but in the process adopt lifestyles not conducive to child-bearing — co-habiting with fewer (and often more dysfunctional) children, same-sex ‘marriage’, a selfish unwillingness to go through the troubles and expense of bringing up children. This will result in a great loss to Christianity, but not a gain in non-religious population. The social cost of this process is enormous, and will change the character of Europe dramatically:

1. Anti-Christian, seeking to remove every evidence of public manifestation of  Christianity.

2. Deferential to minority religions, seeking to not offend (especially with Muslims) or show discrimination (other religions).

3. A large increase in social dysfunctonality with each generation.

Europe needs a new Christian awakening and the Christians revival.

Bert Hickman (Research Associate, Center for the Global Study of Christianity, WCD):

Much of the information presented in the video is inaccurate. For example, the video claims that, according to The Brussels Journal, 25% of the population of Belgium is Muslim. Yet the Journal says on its website (www.brusselsjournal.com/node/3891) that this figure applies only to Brussels. Indymedia.be notes that Brussels is 25.5% Muslim (http://www.indymedia.be/en/node/29363), with the country as a whole only 6.0% Muslim.

Some of the claims are highly implausible. Viewers are warned “some studies show that at Islam’s current rate of growth, in 5-7 years it will be the dominant religion of the world.” Assuming that conversion rates hold steady, however, data from the World Christian Database indicate that for the number of Muslims to exceed the number of Christians in five years, more than 1 out of every 3 Muslims women ages 15-49 would have to give birth annually. If “childbearing years” are limited to ages 15-34, the number rises to more than 1 in 2.

Even without verifying the accuracy of the statements in the video, however, viewers have numerous reasons to question it. First, sources for many of the claims are missing, incomplete, or inaccurate. In addition to the one mentioned above about Islam becoming the dominant religion in 5-7 years, claims that “in 30 years there will be 50 million Muslims living in America” and “currently there are 52 million Muslims living in Europe [doubling to 104 million in 20 years]” are unsourced. Even where sources are given, they lack page numbers (for books) or article names, dates, and issue and page numbers (for other publications). The one website given in the video (www.flickr.com/photos/al-fassam/107142512) leads not to data but a picture of the Kaaba in Mecca.

Second, the source of the video is anonymous. The person who posted it to YouTube is identified only as “friendofmuslim”, who (according to the YouTube profile) is 31 years old and lives in Lebanon.

Third, the video is entirely self-serving, even ignoring the admonition to have more children. The call to evangelize is based neither on compassion for Muslims (who, those most likely to actually do the evangelizing believe, would spend eternity in hell otherwise) nor on obedience to Jesus Christ (who commanded his followers to make disciples of every nation). Instead, the video tries to use fear of the loss of Western culture and society as its motivator. Any one of these three factors should be enough to cause viewers to question it.

Links to articles about this elsewhere

Anti-Muslim Immigration Video Spreads Fear, Distorts Truth
http://ethicsdaily.com/news.php?viewStory=14194 -

Muslim demographics
http://tinyfrog.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/muslim-demographics/ – tears into all of the statistics in a highly detailed way.

Updated 14 May 2009 to add comments from Bert Hickman (CSGC, World Christian Database).

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